Thursday, June 05, 2008

Is Carlos Just Blowing Smoke?

I enjoyed this recent email from someone who wanted to berate me for my reckless citation of statistics.

I thought you might like it, too...
______________________

QUESTION(?) FROM A READER:

You say that marriage is no measure for success because 50% end in divorce.

First of all, that's not true.

You're just regurgitating an urban legend without bothering to check the facts.

Hardly the kind of information I'd expect from an 'expert' on relationships.

There is a lot of arguments AGAINST getting married. For me, I like the freedom.

But, to argue that being married is no sign post of success because half fail is laughable.

If you STILL are married, that means (at least according to your flawed data) you beat the odds.

How is that not clear?

As far as people questioning your ability to provide advice, that's what you SHOULD expect.

They SHOULD ask you tough questions. And, you are right that the proof is in the pudding.

But, ultimately if people aren't persuaded that you can help them elevate their game, they won't buy what you're selling...

Big Daddy
______________________
CARLOS XUMA ANSWERS:

Sorry, you're incorrect. Over 50% of marriages eventually end in divorce. The statistics are even worse for second marriages.

Percentage of married people who reach their 5th, 10th, and 15th anniversaries:
5th: 82%
10th: 65%
15th: 52%


(SOURCE: http://www.divorcemag.com/statistics/statsus.shtml)
After 15 years, yes, it goes past 50%. What I believe you're referring to is the 'probability of divorce.' These statistics are hard to pin down, but let's let common sense dictate. We're all keenly aware that an alarming number of marriages don't work.

(However, in 2005, divorce rate was down. But then, so was the marriage rate. Interesting.)

And even more distressing:
As of 2003, 43.7% of custodial mothers and 56.2% of custodial fatherswere either separated or divorced.

We could boggle each other with statistics all day long, couldn't we? Oh, that would be so much fun.

But you also did not interpret what I said correctly. I'm not arguing against marriage at all. Re-read the information again.
Marriage is not an indicator of success.

SUCCESS is. Too many people look to an institution to provide them with happiness through the fulfillment of an incomplete life.
The what isn't as important as the WHY.

Thanks for the feedback. Best of luck.

Keep reading... You'll learn more if you stick with it.

By the way, Big Daddy, I sense some anger in you. Where did that come from?

- CX

PS: Nowhere do I claim to be an expert on relationships. I am an expert on many areas that could help you with that need to lash out at someone who is helping men and fulfilling his purpose and passions. I hope you find yours, big daddy.

Read more here:
http://www.alphaconfidence.com/praiseforcarlosxuma.php


Also, it should be realized that the "close to 50%" divorce rate refers to the percentage of marriages entered into during a particular year that are projected to end in divorce or separation before one spouse dies. Such projections assume that the divorce and death rates occurring that year will continue indefinitely into the future-an assumption that is useful more as an indicator of the instability of marriages in the recent past than as a predictor of future events. In fact, the divorce rate has been dropping, slowly, since reaching a peak around 1980, and the rate could be lower - or higher - in the future than it is today.

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